Do Cosmological Perturbations Have Zero Mean?

A central assumption in our analysis of cosmic structure is that cosmological perturbations have zero ensemble mean. This property is one of the consequences of statistically homogeneity, the invariance of correlation functions under spatial translations. In this article we explore whether cosmological perturbations indeed have zero mean, and thus test one aspect of statistical homogeneity. We carry out a classical test of the zero mean hypothesis against a class of alternatives in which perturbations have non-vanishing means, but homogeneous and isotropic covariances. Apart from Gaussianity, our test does not make any additional assumptions about the nature of the perturbations and is thus rather generic and model-independent. The test statistic we employ is essentially Student's t statistic, applied to appropriately masked, foreground-cleaned cosmic microwave background anisotropy maps produced by the WMAP mission. We find evidence for a non-zero mean in a particular range of multipoles, but the evidence against the zero mean hypothesis goes away when we correct for multiple testing. We also place constraints on the mean of the temperature multipoles as a function of angular scale. On angular scales smaller than four degrees, a non-zero mean has to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than the standard deviation of the temperature anisotropies.Comment: 31 pages, 4 tables, 6 figure

Trends in cyclones in the high-latitude North Atlantic during 1979-2016

We report an increase in winter (DJF) cyclone densities in the areas around Svalbard and in northwestern Barents Sea and a decrease in cyclone densities in southeastern Barents Sea during 1979-2016. Despite high interannual variability, the trends are significant at the 90% confidence level. The changes appear as a result of a shift into a more meridional winter storm track in the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with a positive trend in the Scandinavian Pattern. A significant decrease in the Brunt-Vaisala frequency east of Svalbard and a significant increase in the Eady Growth Rate north of Svalbard indicate increased baroclinicity, favouring enhanced cyclone activity in these regions. For the first time, we apply composite analysis to explicitly address regional consequences of these wintertime changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic. We find a tendency toward a warmer and more moist atmospheric state in the Barents Sea and over Svalbard with increased cyclone activity around Svalbard.Peer reviewe

Fourier Analysis of Gapped Time Series: Improved Estimates of Solar and Stellar Oscillation Parameters

Quantitative helio- and asteroseismology require very precise measurements of the frequencies, amplitudes, and lifetimes of the global modes of stellar oscillation. It is common knowledge that the precision of these measurements depends on the total length (T), quality, and completeness of the observations. Except in a few simple cases, the effect of gaps in the data on measurement precision is poorly understood, in particular in Fourier space where the convolution of the observable with the observation window introduces correlations between different frequencies. Here we describe and implement a rather general method to retrieve maximum likelihood estimates of the oscillation parameters, taking into account the proper statistics of the observations. Our fitting method applies in complex Fourier space and exploits the phase information. We consider both solar-like stochastic oscillations and long-lived harmonic oscillations, plus random noise. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate the existence of cases for which our improved fitting method is less biased and has a greater precision than when the frequency correlations are ignored. This is especially true of low signal-to-noise solar-like oscillations. For example, we discuss a case where the precision on the mode frequency estimate is increased by a factor of five, for a duty cycle of 15%. In the case of long-lived sinusoidal oscillations, a proper treatment of the frequency correlations does not provide any significant improvement; nevertheless we confirm that the mode frequency can be measured from gapped data at a much better precision than the 1/T Rayleigh resolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics Topical Issue "Helioseismology, Asteroseismology, and MHD Connections

Robust Inference of Trees

This paper is concerned with the reliable inference of optimal tree-approximations to the dependency structure of an unknown distribution generating data. The traditional approach to the problem measures the dependency strength between random variables by the index called mutual information. In this paper reliability is achieved by Walley's imprecise Dirichlet model, which generalizes Bayesian learning with Dirichlet priors. Adopting the imprecise Dirichlet model results in posterior interval expectation for mutual information, and in a set of plausible trees consistent with the data. Reliable inference about the actual tree is achieved by focusing on the substructure common to all the plausible trees. We develop an exact algorithm that infers the substructure in time O(m^4), m being the number of random variables. The new algorithm is applied to a set of data sampled from a known distribution. The method is shown to reliably infer edges of the actual tree even when the data are very scarce, unlike the traditional approach. Finally, we provide lower and upper credibility limits for mutual information under the imprecise Dirichlet model. These enable the previous developments to be extended to a full inferential method for trees.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Application of Structure Equation Modeling for Inferring a Serial Transcriptional Regulation in Yeast

Revealing the gene regulatory systems among DNA and proteins in living cells is one of the central aims of systems biology. In this study, I used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in combination with stepwise factor analysis to infer the protein-DNA interactions for gene expression control from only gene expression profiles, in the absence of protein information. I applied my approach to infer the causalities within the well-studied serial transcriptional regulation composed of GAL-related genes in yeast. This allowed me to reveal the hierarchy of serial transcriptional regulation, including previously unclear protein-DNA interactions. The validity of the constructed model was demonstrated by comparing the results with previous reports describing the regulation of the transcription factors. Furthermore, the model revealed combinatory regulation by Gal4p and Gal80p. In this study, the target genes were divided into three types: those regulated by one factor and those controlled by a combination of two factors

A continuous time random walk model for financial distributions

We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the US dollar/Deutsche Mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, revtex4, submitted for publicatio

The Scale of Cosmic Isotropy

The most fundamental premise to the standard model of the universe, the Cosmological Principle (CP), states that the large-scale properties of the universe are the same in all directions and at all comoving positions. Demonstrating this theoretical hypothesis has proven to be a formidable challenge. The cross-over scale R_{iso} above which the galaxy distribution becomes statistically isotropic is vaguely defined and poorly (if not at all) quantified. Here we report on a formalism that allows us to provide an unambiguous operational definition and an estimate of R_{iso}. We apply the method to galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7, finding that R_{iso}\sim 150h^{-1} Mpc. Besides providing a consistency test of the Copernican principle, this result is in agreement with predictions based on numerical simulations of the spatial distribution of galaxies in cold dark matter dominated cosmological models.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted by JCAP. The text matches the published versio

Long-term trends in tropical cyclone tracks around Korea and Japan in late summer and early fall

This study investigates long-term trends in tropical cyclones (TCs) over the extratropical western North Pacific (WNP) over a period of 35 years (1982-2016). The area analyzed extended across 30-45 degrees N and 120-150 degrees E, including the regions of Korea and Japan that were seriously affected by TCs. The northward migration of TCs over the WNP to the mid-latitudes showed a sharp increase in early fall. In addition, the duration of TCs over the WNP that migrated northwards showed an increase, specifically in early to mid-September. Therefore, more recently, TC tracks have been observed to significantly extend into the mid-latitudes. The recent northward extension of TC tracks over the WNP in early fall was observed to be associated with changes in environmental conditions that were favorable for TC activities, including an increase in sea surface temperature (SST), decrease in vertical wind shear, expansion of subtropical highs, strong easterly steering winds, and an increase in relative vorticity. In contrast, northward migrations of TCs to Korea and Japan showed a decline in late August, because of the presence of unfavorable environmental conditions for TC activities. These changes in environmental conditions, such as SST and vertical wind shear, can be partially associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation

Locality-Convolution Kernel and Its Application to Dependency Parse Ranking

Abstract. We propose a Locality-Convolution (LC) kernel in applica-tion to dependency parse ranking. The LC kernel measures parse similar-ities locally, within a small window constructed around each matching feature. Inside the window it makes use of a position sensitive func-tion to take into account the order of the feature appearance. The sim-ilarity between two windows is calculated by computing the product of their common attributes and the kernel value is the sum of the window similarities. We applied the introduced kernel together with Regular-ized Least-Squares (RLS) algorithm to a dataset containing dependency parses obtained from a manually annotated biomedical corpus of 1100 sentences. Our experiments show that RLS with LC kernel performs bet-ter than the baseline method. The results outline the importance of local correlations and the order of feature appearance within the parse. Final validation demonstrates statistically significant increase in parse ranking performance.